Establishing A Modular Refinery In Nigeria; The Feasibility Report.

Nigeria has for long been a major producer of crude oil ever since the first commercial well was drilled in Oloibiri in present day Bayelsa state. The country presently has an estimated thirty-five billion, three hundred million (35,300,000,000) barrels of hydrocarbon both onshore and offshore assets mostly domiciled in the Niger Delta basin.

Crude oil reserves of Nigeria increased from 16 billion barrels in 1997 to thirty-seven billion (37,000,000,000) barrels in 2016 growing at an average annual rate of five point zero four percent (5.04 %).

Nigeria’s hydrocarbon is classified mostly as “light” and “sweet”, as the oil is largely free of sulphur. Nigeria is the largest producer of sweet oil in The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the organization for petroleum exporting countries.

This sweet oil is similar in composition to petroleum extracted from the North Sea. This crude oil is known as “Bonny light”. Names of other Nigerian crudes, all of which are named according to export terminal, are Qua Ibo, Escravos blend, Brass rivers, Forcados, and Pennington Anfan.

Nigeria presently ranks tenth in the most petroleum-rich nation, and by the far the most affluent in Africa producing about two and half million (2,500,000) barrels per day.

Six oil companies – Shell, Chevron, Mobil, Agip, Elf and Texaco – currently dominate the oil industry in the country. Together, they hold some ninety-eighty percent (98%) of the oil reserves and operating assets. About 50 other companies have minor interests, some of which were recently acquired.

Today, recoverable reserves are estimated at twenty-eight billion, five hundred million (28,500,000,000) barrels, with an average productivity of about two million five hundred thousand (2,500,000) barrels per day, including condensates.

Average oil depletion rate is fifteen percent (15%) but the reserves base has continued to increase due to increase additions from exploration and appraisal drilling and deep offshore exploration.

There are about five hundred (500) oil fields in the Niger Delta. Over fifty-five percent (55%) of these are onshore, while the remaining is in the shallow waters (less than 500 metres). Of these fields, one hundred and ninety-three (193) are currently producing while twenty-three (23) have either been closed-down or abandoned.

Investment opportunities in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria can be stratified along three categories namely the up-stream, middle stream and down-stream sectors. While the middle-stream and downstream sectors as to do with importation, storage and marketing of refined petroleum products, the upstream sector is devoted to the exploration, production and refining of hydrocarbons.

There are currently five (5) refineries in Nigeria; of which four (4) plants are owned by the Nigerian Government through the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), while the fifth is owned and operated by Niger Delta Petroleum Resources (NDPR).

The four (4) Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) refineries are presently operating at less than twenty percent (20%) of their installed capacity.

Also, there are a number of companies with license to build a refinery. One of such company is Dangote Industries Limited. When complete, it will have a capacity to process about six hundred and fifty thousand (650,000) barrels per day of crude oil.

For far too long, the nation has been dependent on importation of refined petroleum products due to the fact that the four (4) crude oil refinery in Nigeria cannot meet the national demand for the product which currently stands at an estimated sixty million (60,000,000) liters of refined petroleum products (PMS, DPK and AGO) per day.

Petroleum products are among the most valuable natural resources abundantly available in our country. Nigerians and people everywhere use petroleum products as a fuel in their automobiles, generating sets, industrial plants and for cooking purposes, thus making petroleum products an essential commodity that is needed for the daily operations of individual, industrial and national activities.

Despite the generally poor returns from petroleum refinery investment, modular mini-refineries, from simple diesel production units to more sophisticated cracking refineries are increasingly becoming a flexible and cost-effective supply option for crude producers & investors. This is particularly where there is a need to adapt rapidly to meet local demand.

Relatively low capital cost, speed and ease of construction are key advantages of a modular mini-refinery.

The conditions required to make such an investment workable typically include: a location in close proximity and with access to crude supply; near to sizable markets with logistic advantages, project finance on preferential terms from development credit agencies and almost certainly some government incentives to support local capacity development.

The overall economics or viability of a mini – refinery depends on the interaction of three key elements: the choice of crude oil used or crude slate; the complexity of the refining equipment or refinery configuration; and the desired type and quality of products produced or product slate

Establishment of mini refineries in Nigeria is technically feasible and economically viable. The raw materials are readily available and the production process very simple with market is readily available.

This report highlights the financial viability or otherwise for establishing a modular refinery in Nigeria.

The capacity of the proposed refinery is one thousand (1,000) barrels per day and the plant would operate at eighty percent (80 %) installed capacity for three (3) shifts of eight (8) hours shift per day working for three hundred (300) days per annum.

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.0 Business Overview 1.1 Description of the Business 1.2 Vision and Mission Statement 1.3 Business Objective 1.4 Value Proposition 1.5 Critical Success Factor of the Business 1.6 Current Status of Business 1.7 Description of the Business Industry 1.8 Contribution to Local and National Economy 2. Marketing Plan 2.1 Description of product 2.2 The Opportunity 2.3 Pricing Strategy 2.4 Target Market 2.5 Distribution and Delivery Strategy 2.6 Promotional Strategy 2.7 Competition 3. Production Plan 3.1 Description of the Location 3.2 Raw Materials 3.3 Production Equipment 3.4 Production / Refinery Process 3.5 Legal Requirement and Operational Guidelines 3.6 Production Cost 3.7 Stock Control Process 3.7 Pre-Operating activities and expenses 3.8.1 Operating Activities and Expenses 3.9 Project Implementation Schedule 4.0 Organizational and Management Plan 4.1 Ownership of the business 4.2 Profile of the promoters 4.3 Key Management Staff 4.3.2 Management Support Units 4.4 Details of salary schedule 5. Financial Plan 5.1 Financial Assumption 5.2 Start – Up Capital Estimation 5.3 Source of Capital 5.4 Security of Loan 5.5 Loan Repayment Plan 5.6 Profit and Loss Analysis 5.7 Cash Flow Analysis 5.8 Viability Analysis 6.0 Business Risks and SWOT Analysis 6.1 Business Risks 6.2 SWOT Analysis

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